The annual AIDS survey has thrown up this happy but surprising finding that the growth of the disease has been controlled in the country. Only 28,000 new infections were reported in 2004, compared to 6 lakh in 2003.
Surprising since there is no accompanying explanation in the entire article for this remarkable decrease in the growth rate. If this finding is indeed true (and “the methodology used in India is internationally recognised and used all over the world,’’ said Salim Habayeb, WHO representative in India), then a biggish pat on the back of public health systems in India is due. If this finding is true….
For estimates of the spread of this disease in India have always sounded ominous – in a recent interview, the head of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in India said – In a country of a billion people, about 4.6 million are HIV positive. If the problem is left unchecked, that number could reach 20 million to 25 million by the decade’s end. A single country could have an HIV-positive population larger than the total populations of London, New York, and Tokyo combined. At the very least, the number of AIDS patients in India was expected to quadruple by 2010.
Noone had anticipated such a check in the spread of the AIDS virus. There have been some attempts at more efficient and relevant communication including this attempt to enlist barbers in the war on AIDS.
I have a hypothesis here – does this finding mean that reported cases of AIDS are on the decline – and at a worrying rate. Awareness creation programs and appaling stigma seem to co-exist, the former seeming to make little impact. In this situation, is it that people carrying the virus (or the full blown disease) have merely decided not to reveal it.
If this hypothesis is false, as I am hoping it is, then the government is doing something very right – except that noone has heard of any communication / treatment effort that could have such a dramatic impact. In such a case, the Indian government (and all participating agencies) can present a case study for the rest of the (third) world where the disease is surging ahead at an uncontrollable rate.
Also puzzling is the fact that close to 70% of Indians affected by HIV/AIDS live in the six states of Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland. Four of these states (excluding the North Eastern ones and to a lesser extent AP) are high on most development indices – then what is going wrong?
As opposed to this , some states including Bihar have recorded zero cases and officially, Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populated state, has only 0.25 per cent of its people affected by the virus – if that does not sound counter-intuitive, then what does? This is where my hypothesis was born…
(Some earlier thoughts on my favourite AIDS crusader Balbir Pasha here and here)
This is seemingly good….however, I for one question the rigorousness of the survey/study. I’m involved with a group that works with children at risk (primarily children of sex workers), and in general the groups we work with have found it extremely difficult to create sufficient AIDs awareness (or enforcement of precautions) in such populations. So I would question this number (especially those in UP and Bihar).
In another region (this one’s in Andhra), a community was highly prone to AIDS and other STDs, and there the community hadn’t heard of AIDS. I kid you not.
yes Sunil, there is something very strange about this study – the figures seem to dramatic to believe… especially considering all other sources have been predicting and reporting massive increase in the spread of the virus…
Charu, 600,000 to 28,000 in one year is the kind of drop that should raise antennae all over the place. It just doesn’t sound credible. Few things change that fast, and I would be immediately suspicious of such numbers. It’s now 5 years old, but even so, Siddharth Dube’s “Sex, Lies and AIDS” is a good book to read on the subject.
absolutely, Dilip… read my response to Sunil’s comment. and there has been no massive campaign – either commjunication oriented or prevention / treatment oriented that could have caused such a major impact – and I keep an eye open for these…
Just to add to this AIDS thread……I think of the examples of Uganda and Kenya. Uganda accepted its AIDS problem, and started one of the most vigorous campaigns on information and awareness. They have been the most successful African nation in controlling the rise of AIDS. It’s taken some 10 years, and is still going on.
Neighboring Kenya denied it had an AIDS problem, and woke up very late (2 years ago). They now have a 25% AIDS infection rate (something like that, I quote from memory).
Keep up the good work – ‘Spread the word!’
hi everybody,found a good discussion, i am from bengal.previously worked on migrant people prone to HIV/AIDS.saw political and religious interference to hide and deny the truth.me also went through the book of siddharth dube and found almost similar picture.another thing is that often people straightly relate poor economic condition with vulnarability of HIV/AIDS.though poor are very much affected,buteconic backwardness is not only the reason. these sort of clearcut hypothesis only done by theoretician who merely go to the field.
i found ,from my practical experiences people from rural /pooreconomic background more informed due to target intervention rather than the people belong to urban area with white colour job.they are also migrant,frequently mobile with low risk perception.so i think they are also very vulnarable.
education or high profile status wont be the only safeguards, either it is under reported or hidden/lied.
what data were given in the reports is nothing but absurd,this is an example of the politics of data representation.